Executive Summary

Q1 2025: Total revenues $664.25M, diluted EPS $1.77, Adjusted EBITDA $457.29M, AFFO per share $3.18; margins compressed (Adjusted EBITDA margin 69.0%, Tower Cash Flow margin 80.9%) .
Revenue modestly above consensus ($664.25M vs $662.32M*) and EPS below consensus ($1.77 vs $2.16*); EBITDA below SPGI consensus ($432.99M actual vs $465.95M*) — driven by FX headwinds and churn internationally .
Management raised full‑year 2025 guidance across key metrics (site leasing revenue, total revenues, Adjusted EBITDA, AFFO, AFFO/share) and announced a new $1.5B buyback authorization; 583K shares repurchased post‑quarter at ~$210.87/share .
Domestic leasing and services activity/backlogs improved, with U.S. mix shifting toward new colocations; international churn remains elevated (Brazil) though CPI escalators may help; 321 Millicom sites closed early, remaining ~6,700 sites targeted for Sep 1 closure .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

“We had a positive start to 2025… Carrier activity levels in the U.S.… continued to grow… backlogs increase from year‑end… allowed us to increase our full year outlook” — CEO Brendan Cavanagh .
Early close of 321 Millicom sites; acquired 344 sites and built 67 towers; domestic cash leasing revenue +0.7% YoY; services exceeded expectations, prompting full‑year services outlook increase .
Capital return: repurchased ~583K shares for $122.9M post‑quarter and Board authorized new $1.5B buyback; quarterly dividend declared at $1.11/share .

What Went Wrong

YoY site leasing revenue down 1.9% and Adjusted EBITDA down 1.7%; AFFO per share down 3.3%; margins compressed vs prior year (EBITDA margin 69.0% vs 71.2%) — FX and elevated international churn contributed .
International cash site leasing revenue −7.5% YoY (constant currency +2.1%), segment operating profit −8.4% YoY (constant currency +1.4%), reflecting churn and carrier consolidations, notably Brazil .
Net cash interest expense rose 4.8% YoY; Sprint consolidation churn expected ~$50–$52M for FY25, adding ongoing drag to domestic net growth .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$667.60	$693.70	$664.25
Diluted EPS ($)	$2.40	$1.61	$1.77
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$472.62	$489.25	$457.29
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	70.9%	70.6%	69.0%
Tower Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$507.63	$527.76	$497.78
Tower Cash Flow Margin (%)	81.3%	81.7%	80.9%

Q1 2025 Actual vs Consensus

Metric	Consensus	Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$662.32*	$664.25
Primary EPS ($)	$2.16*	$1.77
EBITDA ($USD Millions, SPGI)	$465.95*	$432.99*

Segment breakdown (Q1 2025)

Segment Metric ($USD Millions)	Domestic	International	Total
Site Leasing Revenue	$461.00	$155.22	$616.21
Cash Site Leasing Revenue	$459.94	$154.98	$614.93
Segment Operating Profit	$392.72	$108.01	$500.73
Tower Cash Flow	$389.49	$108.29	$497.78
Tower Cash Flow Margin (%)	84.7%	69.9%	80.9%

KPIs (Q1 2025)

KPI	Q1 2025
AFFO ($USD Millions)	$343.92
AFFO per share ($)	$3.18
Net Cash Interest Expense ($USD Millions)	$93.4
Net Debt ($USD Millions)	$11,776.66
Net Debt / Annualized Adjusted EBITDA (x)	6.4x
Sites Owned (Total)	39,709
New Towers Built (units)	67
Sites Acquired (units)	344 (incl. 321 from Millicom)
Dividend per Share ($)	$1.11 declared
Shares Repurchased (post‑quarter)	583K for $122.9M

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous (Feb 24, 2025)	Current (Apr 28, 2025)	Change vs prior midpoint	Status
Site Leasing Revenue ($M)	FY 2025	$2,530–$2,555	$2,536–$2,561	+$6	Raised
Site Development Revenue ($M)	FY 2025	$160–$180	$180–$200	+$20	Raised
Total Revenues ($M)	FY 2025	$2,690–$2,735	$2,716–$2,761	+$26	Raised
Tower Cash Flow ($M)	FY 2025	$2,040–$2,065	$2,043–$2,068	+$3	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	FY 2025	$1,885–$1,905	$1,891–$1,911	+$6	Raised
Net Cash Interest Expense ($M)	FY 2025	$429–$435	$430–$436	+$1	Slightly higher
Non‑Discretionary Capex ($M)	FY 2025	$53–$63	$53–$63	—	Maintained
AFFO ($M)	FY 2025	$1,345–$1,385	$1,353–$1,393	+$8	Raised
AFFO per share ($)	FY 2025	$12.40–$12.76	$12.53–$12.90	+$0.14	Raised
Discretionary Capex ($M)	FY 2025	$1,255–$1,275	$1,255–$1,275	—	Maintained

Bridge highlights: FY2025 site leasing revenue includes new leases/amendments, escalations, non‑organic revenue, FX headwind (~$26M), and churn (regular and Sprint) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q3 2024 (Oct)	Q4 2024 (Feb)	Q1 2025 (Apr)	Trend
U.S. leasing/backlog	Activity up; backlog highest of year	Increased bookings; backlog up; domestic gross +5.1%	“Best quarter in years” for new domestic leasing; backlog grew	Improving
Mix: colocations vs amendments	Shift toward more colos by dollars	More colos vs amendments (by dollars)	~75% of new leasing dollars from colos	More colocations
Sprint churn	Continuing impact	~$50–$52M FY25; ~$50M FY26, ~$20M thereafter	Churn consistent; U.S. churn 1.4% in Q1 (implies lower later)	Managed headwind
International churn/Brazil	FX/churn pressure	Elevated churn; Brazil gross constant‑currency +8.7%	Elevated churn; Brazil challenging; CPI escalators potential	Mixed: churn persists
Millicom transaction	Agreement to acquire ~7,000 sites	Assumes Sep 1, 2025 close; up to 800 builds in 2025	321 sites closed early; ~6,700 sites remain under contract	Progressing
Services business	Strong quarter	Guide $160–$180M; work mostly on SBA sites	Outlook raised on backlog; one carrier pacing faster	Strengthening
Capital allocation	Refinanced tower ABS; revolver undrawn	Dividend up 13%; lowest leverage 6.1x	$123M buyback; new $1.5B authorization; leverage 6.4x	Shareholder‑friendly
Tariffs/macro	Rate/FX headwinds noted	Macro interest-rate headwinds; FX	No direct tariff impacts; cautious on macro	Stable
Technology (AI/ERP)	—	—	Efficiency focus; new systems and ERP refresh; AI adoption	Building capabilities
Spectrum auctions	—	MNO budgets steady; densification a driver	FCC interest to auction; impact 4–5 yrs out	Long‑term driver

Management Commentary

“Carrier activity levels in the U.S… continued to grow… Our U.S. leasing and services application backlogs increase from year‑end… we have increased our full year outlook” — Brendan Cavanagh, CEO .
“We are increasing our full year outlook for all key metrics… drivers include early Millicom closings, improved services outlook, slightly higher straight‑line revenue, and reduced share count from buybacks” — Marc Montagner, CFO .
“Subsequent to quarter end… repurchasing 583,000 shares… and a new $1.5B share repurchase plan… our industry‑leading dividend growth provide a direct line of shareholder returns” — Management .
“We have not experienced, nor do we foresee any direct impacts from the current tariff policies” — CEO .
Efficiency agenda: “Driving efficiencies… incorporation of new technologies and systems… ERP system refresh… incorporate AI” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Fixed Wireless Access and network strain: FWA drives capacity needs and incremental macro site investments; activity is up broadly across carriers .
Mix and timing: ~75% of U.S. new leasing dollars from colos; book‑to‑bill for new colocations typically 3–9 months, turning a bit faster YTD .
Churn outlook: Sprint churn ~$50–$52M FY25 and ~$50M in 2026; international churn elevated (Brazil rationalization), potentially similar levels into next year .
Capital allocation and leverage: Leverage ~6.4x; ample liquidity with undrawn $2B revolver; opportunistic buybacks balanced with capex and debt repayments .
Millicom close: Early partial closings achieved; bulk remains targeted for Sep 1, with potential for earlier stages subject to approvals .

Estimates Context

Revenue: Actual $664.25M vs consensus $662.32M* — modest beat .
EPS (diluted): Actual $1.77 vs consensus $2.16* — miss likely reflecting FX, churn and margin compression .
EBITDA (SPGI): Actual $432.99M vs consensus $465.95M* — miss; company emphasizes Adjusted EBITDA of $457.29M .
Given the stronger services/backlog and guidance raise, sell‑side models may lift FY revenue/AFFO, but near‑term EPS/EBITDA could be tempered for FX/churn and lower margin trajectory.